The Case for Ryan Anderson

The Orlando Magic looked hopelessly outmatched against the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA finals last year, but I believe that this offseason, they made some of the best moves albiet a little too costly.

Their main trade - Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston, and Tony Battie for Ryan Anderson, Vince Carter. Orlando also lost Hedo Turkoglu through free agency, and added Matt Barnes and Brandon Bass.

This changes their lineup from (Alston(Nelson)/Lee/Turkoglu/Lewis/Howard) to (Nelson/Carter/Lewis/Bass/Howard).

Many people pencil in Bass to start at power forward, with Lewis shifting to the small forward position, but this change will rob Orlando of its unique strategy of surrounding Dwight Howard with 4 players who shoot the 3 at a decent clip. With Bass at power forward, they lose that ability - as Bass is a player who plays best near the basket. He is a high energy guy, one with extreme toughness - but is better suited to come off the bench, where he is a mismatch for many bench players - and thus would be quite useful.

I am under the impression that with Anderson starting, Orlando can preserve their strategy, which has foiled opponents such as Cleveland. This strategy of surrounding Dwight Howard with good 3-point shooters forces opponents to think twice about double and triple teaming Howard. They then are forced to leave a man open. With 4 shooters spreading the floor, this puts them at the difficut decision - double Howard and leave someone open to shoot a 3, or let Howard have his way under the basket. With Anderson in, this strategy is preserved, as he shoots 3s at a .365 rate. Ryan Anderson is a player who can stretch the floor, and the defense, unlike Bass who operates much better close to the basket - the same area that Dwight Howard is most effective in.

Another strategy that preserves Orlando's unique offense is this radical one: start Lewis at PF, and start Matt Barnes at SF. Although this pushes Lewis back to PF, where he is not strong enough to withstand the physical beating of larger power forward types, this strategy still allows for opposing teams' defenses to be spread thin. The entire mantra of Orlando's offense is to surround Howard with 3-point shooters, and with Bass in the starting lineup, they are reduced to a more traditional offense.

However, if Bass starts, the bench then becomes more of a matchup problem for other teams - with the bench lineup of Williams/Johnson, Pietrus/Redick, Barnes, Anderson, Gortat. This lineup is a scaled-down version of the starting lineup of last year. Despite this, it would be better for Anderson to start and thus make Orlando's offense more unique, and if the offense is not knocking down their 3s, Bass could be plugged in to allow for a more traditional lineup to work against opponents.

Let's compare Bass and Anderson's statistics from last year.
Over 19.9 minutes, Anderson averaged 7.4 points, 4.7 rebounds while Bass averaged 8.5 points and 4.5 rebounds over 19.4 minutes while both came off the bench. These look almost the same, but Anderson can shoot 3s. If they both rebound at a similar clip, the argument that Bass starting makes Orlando a better rebounding team (Lewis is a below-average rebounder) is moot.

Despite whoever starts, Bass and Anderson are much better upgrades at backup PF than who they had last year (no one), while Barnes is a great upgrade at backup SF. The depth of the team has improved, as the production of Courtney Lee can easily be replicated, if not doubled by Vince Carter.

I believe that if Orlando's coaches, namely Stan Van Gundy can keep Orlando hungry, which shouldn't be too hard, and figure out how to transition from Orlando's 3-point team to a more traditional offense if Bass is inserted during games, they are a threat to challenge for the championship this season. Since they lacked much depth, they often were forced to keep the lineup in for extended periods of time - even when the 3s were not dropping. Now, they have the ability to shift to a more traditional team, one that can easily fill in if the 3-point strategy is not working, instead of dumping the ball to Howard, who is then double and triple teamed as the shooters are not knocking down open shots.

Vince Carter is a significant upgrade over the overrated Hedo Turkoglu, and I believe that Orlando has made the best offseason moves this offseason, putting them in contention for a title.