The Orlando Magic looked hopelessly outmatched against the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA finals last year, but I believe that this offseason, they made some of the best moves albiet a little too costly.
Their main trade - Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston, and Tony Battie for Ryan Anderson, Vince Carter. Orlando also lost Hedo Turkoglu through free agency, and added Matt Barnes and Brandon Bass.
This changes their lineup from (Alston(Nelson)/Lee/Turkoglu/Lewis/Howard) to (Nelson/Carter/Lewis/Bass/Howard).
Many people pencil in Bass to start at power forward, with Lewis shifting to the small forward position, but this change will rob Orlando of its unique strategy of surrounding Dwight Howard with 4 players who shoot the 3 at a decent clip. With Bass at power forward, they lose that ability - as Bass is a player who plays best near the basket. He is a high energy guy, one with extreme toughness - but is better suited to come off the bench, where he is a mismatch for many bench players - and thus would be quite useful.
I am under the impression that with Anderson starting, Orlando can preserve their strategy, which has foiled opponents such as Cleveland. This strategy of surrounding Dwight Howard with good 3-point shooters forces opponents to think twice about double and triple teaming Howard. They then are forced to leave a man open. With 4 shooters spreading the floor, this puts them at the difficut decision - double Howard and leave someone open to shoot a 3, or let Howard have his way under the basket. With Anderson in, this strategy is preserved, as he shoots 3s at a .365 rate. Ryan Anderson is a player who can stretch the floor, and the defense, unlike Bass who operates much better close to the basket - the same area that Dwight Howard is most effective in.
Another strategy that preserves Orlando's unique offense is this radical one: start Lewis at PF, and start Matt Barnes at SF. Although this pushes Lewis back to PF, where he is not strong enough to withstand the physical beating of larger power forward types, this strategy still allows for opposing teams' defenses to be spread thin. The entire mantra of Orlando's offense is to surround Howard with 3-point shooters, and with Bass in the starting lineup, they are reduced to a more traditional offense.
However, if Bass starts, the bench then becomes more of a matchup problem for other teams - with the bench lineup of Williams/Johnson, Pietrus/Redick, Barnes, Anderson, Gortat. This lineup is a scaled-down version of the starting lineup of last year. Despite this, it would be better for Anderson to start and thus make Orlando's offense more unique, and if the offense is not knocking down their 3s, Bass could be plugged in to allow for a more traditional lineup to work against opponents.
Let's compare Bass and Anderson's statistics from last year.
Over 19.9 minutes, Anderson averaged 7.4 points, 4.7 rebounds while Bass averaged 8.5 points and 4.5 rebounds over 19.4 minutes while both came off the bench. These look almost the same, but Anderson can shoot 3s. If they both rebound at a similar clip, the argument that Bass starting makes Orlando a better rebounding team (Lewis is a below-average rebounder) is moot.
Despite whoever starts, Bass and Anderson are much better upgrades at backup PF than who they had last year (no one), while Barnes is a great upgrade at backup SF. The depth of the team has improved, as the production of Courtney Lee can easily be replicated, if not doubled by Vince Carter.
I believe that if Orlando's coaches, namely Stan Van Gundy can keep Orlando hungry, which shouldn't be too hard, and figure out how to transition from Orlando's 3-point team to a more traditional offense if Bass is inserted during games, they are a threat to challenge for the championship this season. Since they lacked much depth, they often were forced to keep the lineup in for extended periods of time - even when the 3s were not dropping. Now, they have the ability to shift to a more traditional team, one that can easily fill in if the 3-point strategy is not working, instead of dumping the ball to Howard, who is then double and triple teamed as the shooters are not knocking down open shots.
Vince Carter is a significant upgrade over the overrated Hedo Turkoglu, and I believe that Orlando has made the best offseason moves this offseason, putting them in contention for a title.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Bill Simmons recently mentioned that Ron Artest and Rasheed Wallace were bad deals for the Lakers and the Celtics.
I will touch more on the Ron Artest subject later - I do agree with Simmons.
However, I politely disagree with Mr. Simmons on the tender subject of Rasheed Wallace. His professed manlove of Brian Scalabrine seems to cloud his better judgement. Mr. Simmons takes the time to throw in a Scalabrine quip every so often - taking time to ensure the reader knows his name. (P.S. - Dear Brian Scalabrine, please take the time to thank Mr. Simmons for helping make your name more recognizable among the basketball world. The first time I ever heard of you was reading a SkyMagazine ad on your house decorations.) Granted, Scalabrine may seem to have that good-guy love going for him, as crowds do cheer and feel pity for him as if he were Michael Sera from Superbad or Jason Segel in Forgetting Sarah Marshall. He might also have that good team chemistry thing going for him too - as in he doesn't have enough talent to even threaten anyone else for playing time, except for maybe Mikki Moore, who only is in the NBA solely due to his abnormal height (7'0).
Many talent evaluators seem to miss out on the fact that being ridiculously tall does not make you ridiculously good at basketball. Think acting - really attractive stars can make really atrocious actors (Tara Reid, most soap operas). Take some recent drafts: Sam Bowie (Okay, not so recent), 2004: Rafael Araujo (taken before Andre Iguodala), Pavel Podkolzin (almost taken by Don Nelson instead of Devin Harris), 2003: Darko Milicic (taken before Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade).
Rasheed Wallace does not fit into this 7'0 category - those gifted vertically, but basketball-challenged. Although I have never been a big fan of Rasheed Wallace, who has much basketball talent, but seems to drift away during games and launches too many 3-pointers ala Josh Smith. Let's take a look at Rasheed Wallace's stats for the 2008-2009 season.
In 32.2 minutes, he averaged 12.0 points a game shooting 41.94%, collecting 7.4 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, .94 steals, 1.4 assists, and .9 turnovers.
Brian Scalabrine averaged 3.5 points a game shooting 42.10%, collecting 1.3 rebounds, .26 blocks, .18 steals, .5 assists, and .3 turnovers in 12.9 minutes.
Mikki Moore averaged 4.8 points a game shooting 60.0%, collecting 4.4 rebounds, .2 blocks, .2 steals, 1 assist, and .9 turnovers in 19.0 minutes.
So let's break this down realistically: combined, Mikki Moore and Brian Scalabrine (the two players Wallace most likely will replace) average a combined 31.9 minutes. Add in a semi-healthy Kevin Garnett (who merits minutes even if he isn't completely healthy) and a hopefully returning Glen Davis, Wallace should average around 20-25 minutes.
Wallace's per25 minute stats are: 9.3 points shooting 41.94%, 5.75 rebounds, 1.01 blocks, .73 steals, 1.09 assists, and .70 turnovers.
Brian Scalabrine's per25 minute stats are: 6.78 points shooting 42.10%, 2.52 rebounds, .50 blocks, .35 steals, .97 assists, and .58 turnovers.
Mikki Moore's per25 minute stats are: 6.32 points shooting 60.0%, 5.79 rebounds, .26 blocks, .26 steals, 1.32 assistss, and 1.18 turnovers.
Wallace's stats are definitely better than Scalabrine and Moore, and although Wallace may be knocked for being an below-average rebounder for his position, his job is to create more space (he shoots 3s at a better clip than Moore and at a comparable clip to Scalabrine). He effectively defends better than Scalabrine, and is a better low post presence.
Although Wallace may be on the decline (he's 35), some of his statistical decline this year can be attributed to Detroit's poor managing - by replacing Billups with Iverson, and surrounding Wallace with 3 ballstoppers. Iverson is the slasher who needs the ball to thrive, while Stuckey is a shooting guard masquerading as a point guard. These 3 guards (Rip Hamilton included) simply do not have the court vision and distribution skills that Billups possesses.
Rasheed Wallace is often toted as the savior of Boston's championship chances, but I disagree. He simply is an upgrade over a position that Boston does need depth at, as Kendrick Perkins' uncanny tendency to morph into a foul machine ala Greg Oden simply leaves Boston thin in the frontcourt. Wallace will provide extra depth and considerably improves Boston's bench, which until now was lacking a imposing physical presence at backup center. In light of the recent moves by other championship-caliber teams, Boston will need nothing short of a miracle: Kevin Garnett's complete health, and probably another veteran or 2- one who can play the role of James Posey such as Keith Bogans, Juan Dixon, or Luther Head, or the rapid improvement of Bill Walker; and of course - a backup point guard such as Tyronn Lue, or Jason Hart - who should all be available for a contract near the veteran's minimum.
I will touch more on the Ron Artest subject later - I do agree with Simmons.
However, I politely disagree with Mr. Simmons on the tender subject of Rasheed Wallace. His professed manlove of Brian Scalabrine seems to cloud his better judgement. Mr. Simmons takes the time to throw in a Scalabrine quip every so often - taking time to ensure the reader knows his name. (P.S. - Dear Brian Scalabrine, please take the time to thank Mr. Simmons for helping make your name more recognizable among the basketball world. The first time I ever heard of you was reading a SkyMagazine ad on your house decorations.) Granted, Scalabrine may seem to have that good-guy love going for him, as crowds do cheer and feel pity for him as if he were Michael Sera from Superbad or Jason Segel in Forgetting Sarah Marshall. He might also have that good team chemistry thing going for him too - as in he doesn't have enough talent to even threaten anyone else for playing time, except for maybe Mikki Moore, who only is in the NBA solely due to his abnormal height (7'0).
Many talent evaluators seem to miss out on the fact that being ridiculously tall does not make you ridiculously good at basketball. Think acting - really attractive stars can make really atrocious actors (Tara Reid, most soap operas). Take some recent drafts: Sam Bowie (Okay, not so recent), 2004: Rafael Araujo (taken before Andre Iguodala), Pavel Podkolzin (almost taken by Don Nelson instead of Devin Harris), 2003: Darko Milicic (taken before Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade).
Rasheed Wallace does not fit into this 7'0 category - those gifted vertically, but basketball-challenged. Although I have never been a big fan of Rasheed Wallace, who has much basketball talent, but seems to drift away during games and launches too many 3-pointers ala Josh Smith. Let's take a look at Rasheed Wallace's stats for the 2008-2009 season.
In 32.2 minutes, he averaged 12.0 points a game shooting 41.94%, collecting 7.4 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, .94 steals, 1.4 assists, and .9 turnovers.
Brian Scalabrine averaged 3.5 points a game shooting 42.10%, collecting 1.3 rebounds, .26 blocks, .18 steals, .5 assists, and .3 turnovers in 12.9 minutes.
Mikki Moore averaged 4.8 points a game shooting 60.0%, collecting 4.4 rebounds, .2 blocks, .2 steals, 1 assist, and .9 turnovers in 19.0 minutes.
So let's break this down realistically: combined, Mikki Moore and Brian Scalabrine (the two players Wallace most likely will replace) average a combined 31.9 minutes. Add in a semi-healthy Kevin Garnett (who merits minutes even if he isn't completely healthy) and a hopefully returning Glen Davis, Wallace should average around 20-25 minutes.
Wallace's per25 minute stats are: 9.3 points shooting 41.94%, 5.75 rebounds, 1.01 blocks, .73 steals, 1.09 assists, and .70 turnovers.
Brian Scalabrine's per25 minute stats are: 6.78 points shooting 42.10%, 2.52 rebounds, .50 blocks, .35 steals, .97 assists, and .58 turnovers.
Mikki Moore's per25 minute stats are: 6.32 points shooting 60.0%, 5.79 rebounds, .26 blocks, .26 steals, 1.32 assistss, and 1.18 turnovers.
Wallace's stats are definitely better than Scalabrine and Moore, and although Wallace may be knocked for being an below-average rebounder for his position, his job is to create more space (he shoots 3s at a better clip than Moore and at a comparable clip to Scalabrine). He effectively defends better than Scalabrine, and is a better low post presence.
Although Wallace may be on the decline (he's 35), some of his statistical decline this year can be attributed to Detroit's poor managing - by replacing Billups with Iverson, and surrounding Wallace with 3 ballstoppers. Iverson is the slasher who needs the ball to thrive, while Stuckey is a shooting guard masquerading as a point guard. These 3 guards (Rip Hamilton included) simply do not have the court vision and distribution skills that Billups possesses.
Rasheed Wallace is often toted as the savior of Boston's championship chances, but I disagree. He simply is an upgrade over a position that Boston does need depth at, as Kendrick Perkins' uncanny tendency to morph into a foul machine ala Greg Oden simply leaves Boston thin in the frontcourt. Wallace will provide extra depth and considerably improves Boston's bench, which until now was lacking a imposing physical presence at backup center. In light of the recent moves by other championship-caliber teams, Boston will need nothing short of a miracle: Kevin Garnett's complete health, and probably another veteran or 2- one who can play the role of James Posey such as Keith Bogans, Juan Dixon, or Luther Head, or the rapid improvement of Bill Walker; and of course - a backup point guard such as Tyronn Lue, or Jason Hart - who should all be available for a contract near the veteran's minimum.
Monday, March 23, 2009
List of Swingmen
I must say, the NBA is really exciting to watch.
Now, however - I present an argument that has always been hidden below the surface, and it is time to let that argument become documented.
This is an entry on the MVP of role players - the "glue guy" of the team.
So what defines a glue guy? I believe it is a person on a team who does the fundamentally sound things, does not hurt his team's win chances, plays very strong defense, etc.
Here is a list of defensively-known swingmen.
Shane Battier
Ron Artest
James Posey
Bruce Bowen
Andrei Kirilenko
Raja Bell
Shawn Marion
Lebron James
Kobe Bryant
Dwyane Wade
Paul Pierce
Tayshaun Prince
Caron Butler
Brandon Roy
Josh Smith
Gerald Wallace
Josh Howard
Andre Iguodala
Trevor Ariza
Thabo Sefolosha
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Jamario Moon
Nicolas Batum
The list above is solely comprised of swingmen known for their defensive reputation, whether it be as a player on the NBA Defensive teams, or just a player known by name. For the most part, I excluded power forwards, centers, and point guards except for those known for their ability to guard/play multiple positions (see Andrei Kirilenko, Shawn Marion, etc.)
The problem with listing all players known for their defensive prowess is the fact that point guards handle the ball quite a lot - which can throw off some statistics. They also tend to guard players who tend to almost have the ball every single possession. Big men are different - as they are measured usually by defensive rebounds, blocks, etc. The swingmen play a completely different style. Most of their opponents play off the ball - which means less opportunities to pick steals, get assists, get turnovers. They also don't play on the big men, who are often given the ball when the offense is not running. Therefore, we will only judge swingmen in this post (other positions will be analyzed later).
If we look at the list above, we have a large plethora of different players: some designated as bench-players, others defensive stoppers (role players as well), others known as the best guy on their team/go-to guy, and more.
(Statistics will come later.)
Now, however - I present an argument that has always been hidden below the surface, and it is time to let that argument become documented.
This is an entry on the MVP of role players - the "glue guy" of the team.
So what defines a glue guy? I believe it is a person on a team who does the fundamentally sound things, does not hurt his team's win chances, plays very strong defense, etc.
Here is a list of defensively-known swingmen.
Shane Battier
Ron Artest
James Posey
Bruce Bowen
Andrei Kirilenko
Raja Bell
Shawn Marion
Lebron James
Kobe Bryant
Dwyane Wade
Paul Pierce
Tayshaun Prince
Caron Butler
Brandon Roy
Josh Smith
Gerald Wallace
Josh Howard
Andre Iguodala
Trevor Ariza
Thabo Sefolosha
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Jamario Moon
Nicolas Batum
The list above is solely comprised of swingmen known for their defensive reputation, whether it be as a player on the NBA Defensive teams, or just a player known by name. For the most part, I excluded power forwards, centers, and point guards except for those known for their ability to guard/play multiple positions (see Andrei Kirilenko, Shawn Marion, etc.)
The problem with listing all players known for their defensive prowess is the fact that point guards handle the ball quite a lot - which can throw off some statistics. They also tend to guard players who tend to almost have the ball every single possession. Big men are different - as they are measured usually by defensive rebounds, blocks, etc. The swingmen play a completely different style. Most of their opponents play off the ball - which means less opportunities to pick steals, get assists, get turnovers. They also don't play on the big men, who are often given the ball when the offense is not running. Therefore, we will only judge swingmen in this post (other positions will be analyzed later).
If we look at the list above, we have a large plethora of different players: some designated as bench-players, others defensive stoppers (role players as well), others known as the best guy on their team/go-to guy, and more.
(Statistics will come later.)
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